Conmebol Sudamericana . Last 16
Global 2-1
Arsenal de Sarandí vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.3%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.5%
2-0
5%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.9%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
6.8%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.1%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
43.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.1%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.9%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal de Sarandí
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2004 |
BAN
3 - 4
ARS
54%
26%
20%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2004 |
BAN
0 - 0
ARS
54%
25%
21%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2004 |
ARS
0 - 0
COL
43%
27%
30%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
HUR
1 - 1
ARS
27%
29%
44%
|
77 | 62 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
ARS
3 - 1
CEN
39%
26%
35%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2004 |
INS
0 - 2
RIV
12%
19%
68%
|
84 | 59 | 25 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2004 |
RIV
1 - 0
ARG
84%
12%
4%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2004 |
BAN
2 - 2
RIV
32%
26%
42%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
RIV
3 - 2
COL
67%
19%
14%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2004 |
RIV
1 - 1
RAF
79%
15%
7%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |