América vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.1%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.3%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
25.5%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+25%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2006 |
NEC
1 - 0
AME
37%
26%
37%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2006 |
AME
5 - 2
POR
88%
8%
3%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2006 |
AME
2 - 1
EST
63%
20%
17%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2006 |
CHI
1 - 0
AME
43%
25%
32%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2006 |
POR
1 - 2
AME
18%
21%
62%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
TOL
3 - 1
EST
63%
21%
16%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 1
OLI
69%
18%
13%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2006 |
ATS
0 - 1
TOL
36%
27%
37%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 3
MOR
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2006 |
OLI
0 - 2
TOL
36%
26%
38%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |