Q. Europa League Playoffs Final
Global 4-2
Ajax vs Ludogorets analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
75.1%
Win probability
2.58
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.5%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.2%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.7%
2-0
11%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15.2%
9.7%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2023 |
LUD
1 - 4
AJA
19%
20%
61%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
EXC
2 - 2
AJA
13%
19%
69%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
AJA
4 - 1
HER
72%
17%
12%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
BVB
3 - 1
AJA
63%
19%
18%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
AUG
3 - 1
AJA
16%
20%
65%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Ludogorets
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
LUD
5 - 0
BER
61%
21%
17%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2023 |
LUD
1 - 4
AJA
19%
20%
61%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
CVA
1 - 0
LUD
39%
26%
35%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2023 |
LUD
5 - 1
AST
62%
20%
18%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
LUD
3 - 0
CSK
57%
23%
20%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | +1 |