Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
91.1%
Win probability
3.54
Expected goals
10-0
0.2%
+10
0.2%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1.1%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.3%
7-0
2.5%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
3%
6-0
4.9%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
6.2%
5-0
8.2%
6-1
2.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
10.9%
4-0
11.6%
5-1
4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
<0%
+4
16.3%
3-0
13.1%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
19.9%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.6%
6.5%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
3.1%
2-2
1.3%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
6.5%
2.3%
Win probability
0.49
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
0.8%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
1.9%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.4%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 1975 |
SPA
1 - 1
AJA
34%
27%
40%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1975 |
MVV
0 - 0
AJA
19%
26%
56%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1975 |
AJA
3 - 1
ADO
86%
10%
4%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1975 |
AJA
2 - 4
PSV
58%
21%
22%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1975 |
GRA
0 - 0
AJA
22%
24%
53%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 1975 |
EXC
1 - 5
TEL
36%
31%
34%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1975 |
EXC
1 - 1
AZA
34%
31%
36%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | +1 |
| 04 May. 1975 |
HFC
1 - 0
EXC
68%
20%
12%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Apr. 1975 |
EXC
2 - 2
UTR
34%
29%
38%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1975 |
GAE
4 - 0
EXC
68%
20%
12%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | 0 |