Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
91.8%
Win probability
3.54
Expected goals
10-0
0.2%
+10
0.2%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1.1%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.4%
7-0
2.6%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
<0%
+7
3.1%
6-0
5.1%
7-1
1.1%
8-2
0.1%
+6
6.3%
5-0
8.7%
6-1
2.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
11.2%
4-0
12.2%
5-1
3.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
16.6%
3-0
13.8%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
20.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.3%
6.1%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
2.9%
2-2
1.1%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
6.1%
2%
Win probability
0.44
Expected goals
0-1
0.8%
1-2
0.6%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
1.6%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.3%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 1974 |
RJC
0 - 0
AJA
17%
21%
62%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1974 |
AJA
3 - 1
ADO
85%
10%
5%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1974 |
TEL
2 - 1
AJA
21%
26%
53%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1974 |
AJA
0 - 0
SPA
76%
14%
10%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1974 |
GRA
1 - 0
AJA
19%
21%
60%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 1973 |
ADO
1 - 1
EXC
78%
16%
6%
|
60 | 83 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1973 |
EXC
4 - 1
BOS
48%
27%
25%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 May. 1973 |
TWE
2 - 0
EXC
87%
9%
4%
|
59 | 87 | 28 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 1973 |
EXC
0 - 1
AJA
8%
16%
76%
|
60 | 88 | 28 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1973 |
TEL
1 - 3
EXC
76%
16%
8%
|
58 | 71 | 13 | +2 |