Ajax vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
94.5%
Win probability
4.54
Expected goals
10-0
0.6%
+10
0.6%
9-0
1.4%
10-1
0.4%
+9
1.7%
8-0
2.7%
9-1
0.8%
10-2
0.1%
+8
3.6%
7-0
4.8%
8-1
1.5%
9-2
0.2%
10-3
<0%
+7
6.6%
6-0
7.4%
7-1
2.7%
8-2
0.4%
9-3
<0%
+6
10.6%
5-0
9.8%
6-1
4.2%
7-2
0.8%
8-3
0.1%
+5
14.8%
4-0
10.8%
5-1
5.5%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
17.6%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.3%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.6%
1-0
2.8%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.2%
3.5%
Draw
0-0
0.6%
1-1
1.6%
2-2
1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
3.5%
1.3%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
0.3%
1-2
0.4%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
1%
0-2
0.1%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.2%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 1971 |
SPA
1 - 1
AJA
33%
27%
40%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1971 |
AJA
1 - 0
ADO
77%
15%
9%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1971 |
TWE
0 - 2
AJA
38%
26%
35%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 1971 |
GAE
4 - 1
AJA
27%
27%
46%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | -1 |
| 02 Jun. 1971 |
AJA
2 - 0
PAN
90%
7%
4%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 1971 |
EXC
0 - 0
BOS
49%
25%
26%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1971 |
VOL
1 - 0
EXC
60%
23%
17%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1971 |
EXC
0 - 1
TEL
50%
26%
24%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | -1 |
| 06 Jun. 1971 |
TEL
1 - 0
EXC
55%
24%
21%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | -1 |
| 31 May. 1971 |
EXC
0 - 0
VOL
50%
25%
24%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | 0 |