UCL Qualifying Third round Final
Global 2-3
Ajax vs Celtic analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
67.3%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
14.4%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2001 |
AJA
5 - 1
AZA
75%
15%
11%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2001 |
TWE
1 - 3
AJA
27%
25%
48%
|
87 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2001 |
AJA
1 - 2
VIT
68%
18%
14%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2001 |
AJA
3 - 4
FEY
60%
20%
20%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2001 |
RKC
2 - 2
AJA
25%
24%
51%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Celtic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2001 |
KIL
0 - 1
CEL
24%
25%
52%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2001 |
CEL
3 - 0
STJ
76%
16%
8%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2001 |
CEL
3 - 0
HIB
57%
21%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 May. 2001 |
KIL
1 - 0
CEL
23%
24%
53%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | -1 |
| 13 May. 2001 |
CEL
0 - 2
DUN
73%
17%
10%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |