UCL Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Ajax vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.6%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.2%
16.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 1972 |
AJA
7 - 0
GRO
88%
9%
3%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1972 |
EXC
0 - 4
AJA
10%
17%
73%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1972 |
NAC
2 - 5
AJA
21%
26%
53%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1972 |
AJA
2 - 1
SPA
76%
15%
9%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1972 |
ADO
1 - 2
AJA
32%
28%
41%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 1972 |
MAC
2 - 0
ARS
45%
27%
28%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 1972 |
ARS
0 - 0
DER
66%
20%
14%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1972 |
DER
2 - 2
ARS
53%
24%
23%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1972 |
IPS
0 - 1
ARS
26%
29%
46%
|
90 | 82 | 8 | +1 |
| 12 Feb. 1972 |
ARS
2 - 0
DER
59%
24%
17%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |