Non League Premier Final

AFC Hornchurch vs Aveley analysis

AFC Hornchurch Aveley
48 ELO 46
7.8% Tilt 13.3%
3647º General ELO ranking 4410º
120º Country ELO ranking 164º
ELO win probability
57.9%
AFC Hornchurch
21.8%
Draw
20.3%
Aveley

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.9%
Win probability
AFC Hornchurch
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
20.3%
Win probability
Aveley
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
AFC Hornchurch
+5%
+5%
Aveley

ELO progression

AFC Hornchurch
Aveley
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

AFC Hornchurch
AFC Hornchurch
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
26 Apr. 2023
HOR
AFC Hornchurch
3 - 3
Cray Wanderers
CRA
66%
19%
15%
49 42 7 0
22 Apr. 2023
KIN
Kingstonian
1 - 2
AFC Hornchurch
HOR
6%
15%
79%
49 25 24 0
15 Apr. 2023
HOR
AFC Hornchurch
2 - 0
Bowers and Pitsea
BOW
84%
12%
4%
48 28 20 +1
10 Apr. 2023
CAR
Carshalton Athletic
2 - 2
AFC Hornchurch
HOR
14%
20%
66%
48 36 12 0
08 Apr. 2023
HOR
AFC Hornchurch
1 - 0
Billericay Town
BIL
76%
16%
9%
48 37 11 0

Matches

Aveley
Aveley
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
26 Apr. 2023
CAN
Canvey Island
0 - 0
Aveley
AVE
56%
22%
22%
46 48 2 0
22 Apr. 2023
ENF
Enfield Town
1 - 2
Aveley
AVE
35%
25%
40%
45 41 4 +1
18 Apr. 2023
CAN
Canvey Island
2 - 2
Aveley
AVE
61%
21%
18%
44 48 4 +1
15 Apr. 2023
AVE
Aveley
0 - 1
Horsham
HOR
53%
24%
23%
45 42 3 -1
08 Apr. 2023
AVE
Aveley
0 - 1
Bishops Stortford
BIS
41%
26%
33%
46 47 1 -1
X