Cesena vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.3%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
3%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.1%
+3
4.2%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
11.3%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
28.3%
Draw
0-0
10%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
28.3%
32.5%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cesena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
AVE
1 - 0
CES
39%
26%
36%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2013 |
CES
4 - 1
PON
75%
16%
8%
|
65 | 42 | 23 | +1 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
CES
1 - 1
LEO
69%
20%
10%
|
66 | 53 | 13 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2013 |
BAR
2 - 1
CES
52%
26%
22%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
CES
3 - 1
JUS
48%
27%
26%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
JUS
1 - 1
VAR
41%
25%
34%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2013 |
VAR
1 - 0
VIC
65%
20%
15%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2013 |
VAR
2 - 2
CAT
30%
26%
44%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
BRE
2 - 0
VAR
47%
27%
26%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2013 |
VAR
1 - 1
CRO
56%
24%
21%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | -1 |